Who Rigs Every Oscar Night?

UPDATE: I had to update this article. I will be doing this with the Top Films of 2004 soon as well. Basically, I've seen an additional movie since this time, Ray, which is completely awful, and I would be remiss if I did not amend my previous statements to reflect this fact. You may now continue with your regularly scheduled article-reading:



We do....Weeeeee doooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!

Ahem, sorry. I couldn't help myself.

As you probably have heard from some reputable, timely news source by now, the 2005 Oscar Nominations were announced early early early in the wee hours of this morning. And I'm going to tell you what I think, goddammit, whether you want to hear it or not.

I'll run down all the major nominations, and maybe even pick a few winners, though lots can change between now and when the final ballots are mailed in. I must admit, I've had wicked good ability in the past to pick Oscar winners...I guess I just know how aging, soulless Hollywood insiders think.

For a complete rundown of all nominations, check the Yahoo page here.

BEST PICTURE

The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Ray
Sideways

Okay, I haven't seen Ray. I doubt it's the year's best movie, but I'll be officially ignorant of that in all nominated categories. Wanted to let you know that right-off. It's nothing personal against Ray Charles or Jamie Foxx. I like some of Charles' music (particularly his note-perfect cover of The Beatles' "Eleanor Rigby," every bit the equal of the original recording). It's just that I have a strong feeling I won't like this traditional-style bio-pic...I almost never like these broad, paint-by-the-numbers Lives of Great Men movies...

[Ray is one of the worst films of the year. Jamie Foxx is not the problem, but his performance is limited. There aren't really any scenes more than a few minutes long. He doesn't have time to develop a sustainable character, and the narrative is so choppy and unfocused, there's little he can do to prevent the movie from spiraling completely out of control. He was better in Collateral, and should be nominated in this category for that work and not in Supporting Actor. He will likely win, which is fine with me, so long as the film receives no other honors, because it is really horribly bad.]

Anyway, of course it sucks that my favorite film of the year, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind wasn't nominated, but I wasn't expecting that anyway. And my #3 (Sideways) and #4 (Aviator) both made the cut. So it's not all bad.

Finding Neverland getting all of these accolades is a total joke. That movie is hacky with a capital H, a blatant attempt to wring some sadness out of you by playing on the oldest, most dreary stereotypes imaginable - a man who appreciates the wonderment of children, a droopy-eyed boy without a father, a parent dying of Movie Wasting Away And Coughing Disease. Aren't people sick of being manipulated so crassly and without purpose? I guess not.

I predict: It's between Aviator and Million Dollar Baby. Too close to call right now, but I'll go with Aviator because it has more nominations and because Scorsese's overdue for a night of accolades.

ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING

Martin Scorsese, The Aviator
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
Taylor Hackford, Ray
Alexander Payne, Sideways
Mike Leigh, Vera Drake

Haven't seen Vera Drake. I'd really like to, but I think I'll have to wait until DVD, unless the studio wisely decides to do a re-release in light of the nominations.

Out of these, the obvious choice is Scorsese. I loved Sideways, but it was the writing and performances that really drove it home for me. In fact, I kind of found the washed-out cinematography unpleasant after a while. A finely-tuned, well-directed film, but not the sort of virtuoso production Scorsese's been mounting for years now.

I'll predict Scorsese to take it.

[Taylor Hackford's nomination in this category is unthinkable. Directors like Michel Gondry, Quentin Tarantino, Brad Bird, Mike Nichols, Michael Mann and Richard Linklater all did award-worthy work. And, let's face it, some of those guy are due for some love. And Hackford's direction is the worst thing about Ray, which is a movie that has a lot of things wrong with it. It's like honoring a 747 for its contribution to the World Trade Center.]

[Too soon? Seemed funny to me.]

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda
Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
Jamie Foxx, Ray

You think Jamie Foxx feels silly now about adopting that stage name? I mean, when he started going by Jamie Foxx, he was a ribald comedian on the Def Comedy circuit. Now that he's Hollywood's favorite leading man, headlining films with Tom Cruise and topping everyone's list of predictions for Best Actor, it's unfortunate he didn't go for something a bit more dignified.

Oh well...this is clearly his year, and though I haven't seen the film, I don't doubt it's a great performance. He certainly seems to have captured the mannerisms and style of Charles in the clips I've seen.

[It's a good performance, but again, this isn't Foxx's fault. He did capture the mannerisms and style, particularly in terms of the physicality. I preferred the DiCaprio performance in The Aviator, and of course, the unnominated Paul Giamatti's work in Sideways.]

But, ahem, Depp for Finding Neverland? I'm a big fan of JD, but why does he only get attention from award committees when he stars in total shit? Like this or Chocolat?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Alan Alda, The Aviator
Thomas Haden Church, Sideways
Jamie Foxx, Collateral
Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby
Clive Owen, Closer

Clive Owen's performance in Closer ranks among the year's best. I've been into his work since Croupier, and he just keeps getting better. (The little-seen and highly creepy I'll Sleep When I'm Dead, also from last year, similarly featured an intense turn from Owen).

He'd be my pick. Although Haden Church puts up a strong argument for his hilarious sleazebag groom-to-be in Sideways.

It's odd, by the way, that Jamie Foxx is nominated here for Collateral, when clearly he's the lead in that film. It's his character's story - Tom Cruise merely comes in and out of the action to inspire Foxx's Max to action. Foxx was great in Michael Mann's movie (which I liked considerably more than some of this year's Best Picture nominees), but he likely won't win here because voters are anticipating his Best Actor win.

BEST LEAD ACTRESS

Annette Bening, Being Julia
Catalina Sandino Moreno, Maria Full of Grace
Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake
Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

So, this is the category where Eternal Sunshine will finally get its recognition? Lead Actress? I'm not gonna complain, and Kate Winslet's great in the movie, but it's really Michel Gondry and Jim Carrey's movie. Oh well, nice to see it get some nominations and attention, considering it opened back in February.

But my preference would be Moreno for Maria Full of Grace. Great, small debut film with a tremendous central performance from this young unknown. She's so abosorbing in the film - her character could be just a victim of the system, but she comes across as an earthy, likable girl with a charming personality, facing insurmountable odds during her strange journey to America.

And have you noticed something odd? Million Dollar Baby has been nominated in every single category I've discussed so far. Did Clint Eastwood put his pheremones in the LA Drinking Water or something? How does he do this year after year? I mean, it's a good movie, I liked it, but come on! It's essentially a formula boxing film. A well-made one, sure, but 2004 had some real challenging, daring cinema. Movies with ideas, like I Heart Huckabees and Eternal Sunshine and Closer and Before Sunset. Why monopolize all the major categories every time Clint Eastwood makes a genre film with good actors?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, The Aviator
Laura Linney, Kinsey
Virginia Madsen, Sideways
Sophie Okonedo, Hotel Rwanda
Natalie Portman, Closer

Last year, the nominees were Renee Zellweger, Marcia Gay Harden, Patricia Clarkson, Holly Hunter and Shohreh Aghdashloo, for House of Sand and Fog. This year, the nominees are Cate Blanchett, Laura Linney, Virginia Madsen, Natalie Portman and...Sophie Okonedo, for Hotel Rwanda.

Sensing a trend?

Let's go one more year back...In 2003, the nominees were Catherine Zeta-Jones, Kathy Bates, Meryl Streep, Julianne Moore and...wait for it...Queen Latifah, nominated for Chicago. (She lost to her castmate, Zeta-Jones).

Okay, so, they always nominate four white ladies and one minority. And the minority, um, how shall I put this, doesn't ever win. So, sorry, Sophie, but I wouldn't spend too much time on that acceptance speech.

I'd go with Natalie Portman, were I voting, although all the other nominees were good. This is kind of a hard category to call, but I think Virginia Madsen will likely win for Sideways. The Academy always likes a good comeback story.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

John Logan, The Aviator
Charlie Kaufman, Michel Gondry & Pierre Bismuth, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Keir Pearson & Terry George, Hotel Rwanda
Brad Bird, The Incredibles
Mike Leigh, Vera Drake

Again, haven't seen two of these five nominees, so it's hard to talk about who should win in any substantive way. But it's nice to see The Incredibles get at least one major nomination. It's almost assured a win in the Animated category, but this is its only other shot.

My vote would, of course, go to Kaufman, Gondry and Bismuth for Eternal Sunshine. They have a good chance, I'd say. There's a long history of the screenplay categories going to smaller films that hit it big with selected audiences (think Usual Suspects).

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke & Kim Krizan, Before Sunset
Jose Rivera, The Motorcycle Diaries
David Magee, Finding Neverland
Paul Haggis, Million Dollar Baby
Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor, Sideways

For me, this one's a two-way race - Before Sunset vs. Sideways. It's a tough contest. I might give Sideways the heads-up, if only because so much of Before Sunset was improv, it's hard to think of it as a screenplay-based film at all. (That's why co-stars Delpy and Hawke are credited as co-writers). But, then again, I'd really like to see Sunset win something, if only to see Linklater get to take the stage at the Oscars (after his brilliant Waking Life failed to even earn a nomination in the Best Animation category...Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius was nominated that year instead! An outrage!)

And I don't even need to say that David Magee's numbingly simplistic, formula retread Finding Neverland has no business in such auspicious company. Will he feel embarrassed to hear his name called amongst the nominees on Oscar night? He should.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

As It Is in Heaven - Sweden
The Chorus - France
Downfall - Germany
The Sea Inside - Spain
Yesterday - South Africa

Many people are very upset to see that House of Flying Daggers failed to earn a nomination here. I have not seen that film, or any of these, so I'm totally ignorant here on the issue.

I'm just upset that Spring, Summer, Fall, Winter...and Spring failed to earn a nomination. That movie was friggin' brilliant.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

The Incredibles
Shark Tale
Shrek 2

This is bullshit. I mean, obviously The Incredibles will win and should win. It's genius. But Shark Tale doesn't deserve an Oscar nomination! Come on, people! Neither does Shrek 2. It was watchable, but that's it.

It sucks that this category was created to open the Oscars up to less conventional "great, important films," but has just become a roll-call of all the big studio CG-animated films in any given year.

Surely there are anime films that deserve recognition on a mass level, right? What about Ghost in the Shell 2? That doesn't count for anything?

And that's without even discussing whether Sky Captain deserved a nomination in this category. That whole movie was animated except for the human actors, right? We don't consider I, Robot an animated film just because one of the main characters is animated...why doesn't that work both ways?

ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY

Robert Richardson, The Aviator
Caleb Deschanel, The Passion of the Christ
John Mathieson, The Phantom of the Opera
Zhao Xiaoding, House of Flying Daggers
Bruno Delbonnel, A Very Long Engagement

Haven't seen Very Long Engagement still, and it's killing me.

I called that Passion would get this nomination. They'd get way too much flack if they let the year pass without honoring the year's most popular and one of its most successful films. Plus, it was a pretty well-shot film. Nothing in it was particularly worth shooting, but the shooting that was done came out nice.

I'd choose Richardson, though he should have been nominated for his fantastic work in Kill Bill V. 2 rather than his similarly fantastic work in The Aviator. What a year this guy's had.

[I change my vote. Very Long Engagement was the best-looking live-action film this year, hands down. Bruno Delbonnel's work in this film is staggeringly beautiful.]

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
I, Robot
Spider-Man 2

Bullshit again...total bullshit.

Harry Potter had some of the best effects work of 2004. I loved the look of that movie, and if it wins, I'll feel alright about things.

But no nomination for Sky Captain in this category is the ultimate smack in the face. That movie was the definition of ground-breaking. It's THE BEST effects film of the year BY FAR. I get that some people didn't like its antiquated style, clipped dialogue and silly gags. But you can't really fade the way the movie looks. It's a stunning visual achievement, and I, Robot doesn't hold a candle.

I liked the effects in Spidey as well, by the way, but not nearly as much as Sky Captain. Or Eternal Sunshine, which has the kind of subtle visual trickery that's never noticed in this category.