Crash This!

So, the Oscar nominations have been announced, and they are pretty strange. Though, as usual, some movies pop up in all sorts of categories (Brokeback leads the way with 8 nominations), it's actually surprisingly diverse. Major nominations went out to smaller films that wouldn't normally score a lot of end-of-the-year rememberances, like Transamerica and Crash and Junebug and Mrs. Henderson Presents.

Here's a rundown of the major categories:

BEST PICTURE

Good Night and Good Luck
Brokeback Mountain
Crash
Munich
Capote

I'm surprised to see Capote in here. It's a good film, it got a lot of attention during the year, PSH does a great job of not only embodying Capote but showing us a side of his personality behind his famously squeaky voice...But the movie's no Best Picture. It's a remake of In Cold Blood that adds in some new insights, but doesn't begin to translate the quiet power of that earlier film.

And, of course, I'm excited to see Munich, my favorite film of 2005, nominated and distressed to see Paul Haggis' Crash in there. When was the last time my least-favorite film of the year was nominated for an Oscar? 2002, when Beautiful Mind was not only nominated, but took home the prize!

My prediction: Brokeback will win this and many other awards at the Oscars, as it seems the only movie all of Hollywood can get together and agree upon this year. I think it's because choosing the movie is a political statement (I dislike George Bush and conservatives) without saying anything specific that you can be called out on later (the movie, after all, is just about two guys in love).

Who should win: Munich is the best movie of this year, but I would be fine with seeing Brokeback or Good Night and Good Luck take the prize. All three were significant achievements.

BEST DIRECTOR

George Clooney, Good Night and Good Luck
Bennett Miller, Capote
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Steven Spielberg, Munich
Paul Haggis, Crash

Haggis? Are you fucking people kidding me?

Again, this crop is a mixed bag. I'm thrilled to see Steve-o in there, but Bennett Miller for Capote? This is also where we first begin to realize that Match Point is going to be the official Overlooked Movie for 2005. Bennett Miller scores a nomination for Capote, and Woody doesn't get one?

Also, legendary director David Cronenberg's A History of Violence won noms in a lot of other categories, and he received the National Society of Film Critics Award and the Online Film Critics Award for the film, and even though he's never won an Oscar before, he didn't score a nomination. No, hey, but Paul Haggis...That creepy Canadian Scientologist and his bogus shrill sermonizing...He's more worthy, right!

My prediction: Ang Lee will take the award as part of a run by Brokeback Mountain, making up for 2001, when he won the DGA Award for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon but then lost out on the Oscar to Steven Soderbergh.

Who should win: Spielberg. Or, since he's already won a few times, I'll say the unnominated Woody Allen, David Cronenberg, George Lucas, Jim Jarmusch or Christopher Nolan.

BEST ACTOR

Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
David Strathairn, Good Night, And Good Luck
Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow

This is a great crop of nominations. I really enjoyed all five of these performances. I'm particularly glad to see that Terrence Howard, who we all knew would get a nomination, is up for his far superior work in the far superior Hustle & Flow instead of Crash. And no Russell Crowe for Cinderella Man, a film that with the exception of Paul Giamatti's Supporting Actor nod, is blissfully out of the running for major awards! Huzzah!

My prediction: Before today, I would have said Joaquin Phoenix for his take on Johnny Cash in Walk the Line. But now...with Capote getting all these nominations...it's obvious that a lot of Academy members liked the film more than I anticipated. Plus, PSH won the SAG Award and the Golden Globe...and he hasn't won before...Okay, I'm convinced. Hoffman will get it for playing Truman Capote.

Who should win: As I said, I would be happy to see any of these guys win. Great performances all around.

BEST ACTRESS

Charlize Theron, North Country
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Keira Knightley, Pride and Prejudice

Oddly, though I have busted my ass to see as many 2005 movies as possible, I have seen only one film out of these five nominations. Big surprise: No Maria Bello for A History of Violence. Bigger surprise: Friggin' Keira Knightley? I haven't seen Pride & Prejudice, but really? She's usually so wooden!

My prediction: Reese for Walk the Line, the only one of these films I, or the majority of Oscar voters, have seen.

Who should win: Kind of hard for me to say...

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

William Hurt, A History of Violence
George Clooney, Syriana
Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
Matt Dillon, Crash
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain

It is exceptionally cool that Academy members remembered and singled out William Hurt for A History of Violence. Ed Harris would have been the more obvious pick from the film, but Hurt comes in late in the film and really just DOMINATES the Third Act. It's an incredibly powerful, funny turn that represents the best, most lively and interesting work he's done in a long time. (Interesting, too, that George Clooney is nominated for his work in Syriana, playing a character who mainly interacts in the film with...William Hurt.)

Why is Jake Gyllenhaal considered a "supporting actor" and Heath Ledger just an "actor." I understand that the film, particularly towards the end, is told from Ennis' point of view, but arguably Jack and Ennis are both the film's protagonists and share the bulk of the screentime equally. Seems unfair, like a way to nominate them both without them cancelling one another out.

My prediction: This is a tough category. Except for Hurt, who has little chance in my estimation of winning, everyone has a compelling argument. Clooney won the Golden Globe. Giamatti won the SAG Award and has been great in movies for years now without winning. Dillon just won a SAG Award along with the rest of the Crash ensemble, and has never won a big award despite a long career in filmmaking. They love stories like this at the Oscars, guys who bummed around in a variety of films for years and then finally got the one part that shows everyone what they can do and blah blah blah. Finally, Gyllenhaal could totally get in there as part of a broader Brokeback sweep.

But I'm going to go ahead and guess Clooney, who won the Golden Globe and who hurt his back filming Syriana and who probably won't win anything big for Good Night and Good Luck, meaning this would be a good way to get him up on stage and give him an award.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Frances McDormand, North Country
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
Amy Adams, Junebug
Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Catherine Keener, Capote

No Scarlett Johnasson for Match Point? That's it...I call shenanigans on this entire awards season.

Also, I thought Anne Hathaway was just as effective as Michelle Williams in Brokeback Mountain, and it's odd to me that Williams so clearly had more champions heading into Oscar season.

And finally, I just don't understand this Rachel Weisz in Constant Gardener thing. Putting aside the fact that, though incredibly beautiful, I've never thought Weisz was very interesting on-screen, she's not really in very much of the film and makes an impression more because of the startling, busy technique Mereilles uses for his "flashback sequences." The one scene that's really calm and focused on the acting - the opening sequence where she and Fiennes meet and flirt after a lecture - is pretty awkward, actually.

Also, though she's pretty good in her few scenes, Keener's not enough of a major presence in Capote to warrant this nomination. This is just one of those cases where it's clear a lot of voters really liked that movie and wanted to give it awards for stuff.

My prediction: Out of these nominees, Weisz strikes me as the heavy favorite.

Who should win: With Scarlett Jo out of the running, I'll have to go with Michelle Williams for Brokeback or Amy Adams in Junebug. No real preference between the two.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Josh Olson, A History of Violence
Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana, Brokeback Mountain
Dan Futterman, Capote
Jeffrey Caine, The Constant Gardener
Tony Kushner and Eric Roth, Munich

More solid picks. This is a pretty strong field. I continue to be befuddled by the success of Capote. Was it really so memorable and smart and thought-provoking? I'll definitely have to revisit the film on DVD when it comes out in March, because I must have missed something.

Also, Jeffrey Caine's Constant Gardener script was pretty flat. Even if you liked the film, I would think it's the revved-up intensity of the direction and theexcellent Ralph Fiennes perfrmance that would have won you over, rather than the often-pedestrian writing.

My prediction: Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana, as part of a larger Brokeback sweep, garnering Best Picture, Director and Screenplay.

Who should win: Tony Kushner and Eric Roth for their powerful, authentic, subtle and dizzyingly detailed Munich script. And it's not easy for me to suggest Eric Roth receive an Oscar, because he's the man responsible for the Forrest Gump screenplay, okay? Also, it's awesome that Laser Blazer customer Josh Olson scored a nom for his terrific A History of Violence screenplay. I'd be perfectly contented seeing him win.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Stephen Gaghan, Syriana
Paul Haggis and Robert Moresco, Crash
George Clooney and Grant Heslov, Good Night, And Good Luck.
Woody Allen, Match Point
Noah Baumbach, The Squid and the Whale

So, really, it's Concellation Prize. Hey, your film won't be otherwise recognized tonight, but we're giving you this Oscar to let you know we think you're really special. So the only question is, which film will everyone feel bad about not otherwise honoring?

My prediction: I can't believe it has come to this...I believe, in March of this year, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will award Paul Haggis an Oscar for his screenplay for Crash. The film probably won't win anything else, and it's a big popular favorite, so they'll want to give it something. And the Best Original Screenplay will probably be that something. (Bearing in mind...There's a chance that Crash will pull a massive upset and get Best Picture, but even if this happens, it will still probably get Best Original Screenplay.)

Who should win: Woody's script for Match Point was the year's best, hands down.

BEST FILM EDITING

Mike Hill and Dan Hanley, Cinderella Man
Claire Simpson, The Constant Gardener
Hughes Winborne, Crash
Michael Kahn, Munich
Michael McCusker, Walk the Line

My prediction: Michael Kahn, who has been cutting Steven's films since the 70's, will win for Munich.

Who should win: Michael Kahn for Munich.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

March of the Penguins
Darwin's Nightmare
Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room
Murderball
Street Fight

Those fucking penguins got a nomination and Grizzly Man didn't even make the shortlist of finalists. I'm therefore boycotting even giving you my picks for this category.

BEST ANIMATED FILM

Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
Tim Burton's Corpse Bride
Howl's Moving Castle

I've only seen Corpse Bride out of the contenders, and Best Animated Film it ain't. So I'll reserve judgement until I get to check out the other two in the coming months on DVD. I'll only ask this: considering that the bulk of the film Sin City was, in fact, animated, is it eligible for Best Animated Film? It was only live actors inserted into animation. Wouldn't saying Sin City is live action because it has real actors be like saying that Who Framed Roger Rabbit is a cartoon, because it has animated characters?

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Dean Wright, Bill Westenhofer, Jim Berney and Scott Farrar - The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe
Joe Letteri, Brian Van't Hul, Christian Rivers and Richard Taylor - King Kong
Dennis Muren, Pablo Helman, Randy Dutra and Daniel Sudick - War of the Worlds

I knew this would happen. No nomination for Star Wars: Episode III. I mean, did any of these films have so many effects shots? Every single shot in Star Wars was an effects shot. And General Greivous was an incredibly-realized character. Now, I agree that King Kong had a lot of amazing visuals, and that War of the Worlds was incredibly sleek and well-designed and cool. But to not even nominate Lucas' masterpiece in this category is pretty egregious.

My prediction: I think Narnia will win this category, in recognition of its huge box office and popularity during the holiday season.
Who should win: Out of these nominees, I'd give it to War of the Worlds. But I think it should be Star Wars.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Paradise Now (Palestine)
Joyeux Noel (France)
Tsotsi (South Africa)
Sophie Scholl: The Final Days (Germany)
Don't Tell (Italy)

I haven't seen any of these, but word on the street is that Tsotsi rules. They may give it to the Palestinian film as a gesture, or deny it to the Palestinian film for the same reason. So it's kind of hard to call.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

'In the Deep' - Music by Kathleen 'Bird' York and Michael Becker; Lyrics by Kathleen 'Bird' York, Crash
'Hard Out Here for a Pimp' - Music & Lyrics by Jordan Houston, Cedric Coleman and Paul Beauregard, Hustle & Flow
'Travelin' Thru' - Music & Lyrics by Dolly Parton, Transamerica

Hustle & Flow pulled the nomination. Awesome. I figured "Whoop That Trick" would get it, but this might be the overall better song ayway. Who will perform it on Oscar night? Ludacris? Terrence Howard as DJay? Anythony Anderson and DJ Qualls? There would be something almost surreally awesome about him going on stage in a wifebeater and rapping "Hard Out Here for a Pimp," and then later going on stage to collect his Best Actor trophy, no? Beat that, Jamie Foxx!

My prediction: I'm sure they'd love to give an award to crusty old Dolly Parton. But I honestly have no idea.

Who should win: Hustle & Flow all the way.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

John Williams, Memoirs of a Geisha
John Williams, Munich
Gustavo Santaolalla, Brokeback Mountain
Alberto Iglesias, The Constant Gardener
Dario Marianelli, Pride and Prejudice

No nomination for James Newton Howard/Hans Zimmer for Batman Begins? That was my favorite score of the year. At least Mark Isham's awful, pseudo-Middle Eastern Crash BS didn't make the cut. That and Marco Beltrami's ridiculously over-the-top Red Eye music were my least-favorite of the year's scores.

My prediction: Gustavo Santaolalla, Brokeback Mountain

Who should win: Yeah, I'll go with Gustavo. The Brokeback music is really serene and melancholy and graceful. I liked it a lot.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Wally Pfister, Batman Begins
Rodrigo Prieto, Brokeback Mountain
Robert Elswit, Good Night, And Good Luck.
Dion Beebe, Memoirs of a Geisha
Emmanuel Lubezki, The New World

Holy shit, Batman Begins got nominated! That's awesome! Way to go, Wally! But...wait...No Munich? What in the...If Munich was only going to get one nomination, I would have thought "cinematography." Are you kidding? That thing was goddamn amazing! How it evoked the 70's, and how the violence was so grisly and unsparing, and the contrasts between different cities and countries...Kaminski, you was robbed!

My prediction: I think Prieto takes it as part of the Brokeback juggernaut. But Lubezki wouldn't be a bad bet, if they feel like throwing something at Malick and The New World. I also think Elswit's beautiful black-and-white work for Good Night has a shot.

Who should win: Much as I'd love to see a major award for my favorite Batman movie ever...I think Good Night and Good Luck was the best-looking black and white film in a long time, at least since the Coen Brother's Man Who Wasn't There, and maybe before.